I arrived a little late for this one, the conversations in the hallways being just as compelling as the presentations in the rooms.

He drew a lot of really good diagrams, which I hope are captured somewhere (The Cone of Uncertainty, the 'change is an S curve' diagrams). And offered some general advice for would-be futurists:

• Look for something that's been failing for 20 years
• Look back twice as far as you're looking forward
• Look for "prodromes" -- what doctors call indicators. These may or may not be actual trends.
• Confuse "indicators" and "trends" at your own peril
• Think the Unthinkable. ("Will the U.S. exist in 50 years?")
• Be indifferent. Don't value x outcome over y outcome.
• Prove yourself wrong.
• Don't be worse than wrong. I.e., don't be right and ignored.

Some interesting ideas: The Mexican border doesn't want to exist. The future is in city-states, not nation-states.

Here's an Interview with Paul Saffo, and some great papers from the Institue for the Future.

LINK | 10:52 AM | TB

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